In my experience the odds of getting caught were not 50% but more like 90%. Escapes were so rare that I took screenies of them. I only have 2 and I remember them! Epic! Simply running away did not work as there was always a fleet waiting for me. Battle damage more than used up any profit made from smuggling. Then there was the problem of constantly losing officers in the jungle. Smuggling was a lose/lose proposition and I have no desire to ever do it again.